Analysis

Indian event-trading apps need beginner’s luck for quick scale-up

Soumya Gupta

October 13, 2022 | 12 Min Read

Better Opinions, Probo and TradeX offer a new form of trading to people eager to make cash off their educated guesses. Top investors, from Meta to Nandan Nilekani’s Fundamentum, back them. But the odds are tough, given the regulatory minefield and business challenges

The famously cautious Indians have displayed a relish for taking chances in recent years, parting with their money on a variety of apps. Consider the stampede to buy overpriced assets like crypto in the first 18 months of Covid-19 and the runaway popularity of fantasy sports, now a Rs 34,600-crore industry (FY21).

The exponents of these segments, especially fantasy leagues, insist that gains for individuals depend on a combination of knowledge, skill and timing — not luck. That argument, endorsed by courts, helps them block comparisons with nettlesome, not to mention wildly risky, activities such as online gambling.

These fine distinctions, though, make no odds to a large base of mobile users waiting to invest in the next big, unconventional idea. A clutch of startups is now counting on this enthusiasm to lay the foundations of a new prediction market in India.

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